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PROTHENA CORP PUBLIC LTD CO (PRTA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue was $2.42M and EPS was $(0.68); EPS was roughly inline with S&P Global consensus, but revenue materially missed Street expectations, driven by collaboration timing and a lean revenue base . Consensus for Q3 2025 was EPS $(0.69)* and revenue $6.64M*, versus actual EPS $(0.68) and revenue $2.42M — a significant revenue miss and an EPS inline .*
  • Operating discipline continued: R&D and G&A declined year over year; net cash used in operating and investing activities was $40.6M; quarter-end cash and restricted cash was $331.7M, with no debt .
  • Guidance maintained: full-year 2025 net cash used in operating and investing activities $170–$178M; year-end cash ≈$298M midpoint, unchanged from Q2 .
  • Clinical catalysts advanced: Novo Nordisk initiated Phase 3 CLEOPATTRA for coramitug (ATTR-CM) and published supportive Phase 2 data in Circulation; Roche plans to initiate Phase 3 PARAISO for prasinezumab in early Parkinson’s by YE 2025; BMS-986446 (PRX005) received FDA Fast Track in Alzheimer’s .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Clinical momentum: Novo Nordisk initiated Phase 3 CLEOPATTRA for coramitug; Phase 2 results presented at AHA and published in Circulation, supporting progression to outcomes study .
  • Cost discipline: R&D fell to $28.9M (from $50.7M YoY); G&A to $13.2M (from $16.8M YoY); total operating expenses down to $42.7M (from $67.5M YoY) . “We are pleased with the advancement of our late-stage partnered clinical programs…” — Gene Kinney (CEO) .
  • Cash runway intact: Net cash used in O&I was $40.6M; cash and restricted cash ended Q3 at $331.7M; no debt .

What Went Wrong

  • Top-line volatility: Revenue of $2.42M declined sequentially from $4.42M in Q2, reflecting collaboration revenue timing; materially missed Street consensus .*
  • Profitability headwinds: Net loss of $(36.5)M; cumulative YTD non-cash tax and restructuring burdens weighed on results (YTD restructuring $33.1M; net non-cash tax expense $43.2M) .
  • Investor communication: No earnings call or Q&A was held, limiting real-time guidance clarification and narrative control .

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$0.97M $2.83M $4.42M $2.42M
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(1.10) $(1.12) $(2.34) $(0.68)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$67.48M $68.41M $89.04M $42.66M
R&D Expense ($USD)$50.72M $50.81M $40.52M $28.94M
G&A Expense ($USD)$16.76M $17.60M $15.91M $13.24M
Net Loss ($USD)$(59.00)M $(60.20)M $(125.77)M $(36.54)M

Revenue Composition

Line ItemQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Collaboration Revenue ($USD)$0.97M $2.78M $4.42M $2.42M
License & IP ($USD)$0.00M $0.05M $0.00M $0.00M

Margins

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Income Margin %N/A*N/A*N/A*N/A*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Liquidity and Operating Cash Metrics

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Cash Used in O&I ($USD)$53.4M $46.4M $40.6M
Cash & Restricted Cash (Quarter-End, $USD)$418.8M $372.3M $331.7M
Shares Outstanding (Approx.)53.8M (May 1) 53.8M (Jul 25) 53.8M (Oct 31)
DebtNone None None

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q3 2025)

MetricConsensus (S&P Global)Actual (Company)Commentary
EPS ($)$(0.69)*$(0.68) Inline (slight beat vs consensus)
Revenue ($USD)$6.64M*$2.42M Miss; collaboration revenue below Street expectations

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Cash Used in O&I ($USD)FY 2025$170–$178M (Q2 guide) $170–$178M (Q3) Maintained
Year-End Cash & Restricted Cash ($USD)FY 2025≈$298M midpoint (Q2) ≈$298M midpoint (Q3) Maintained
Year-End Cash & Restricted Cash ($USD)FY 2025≈$301M midpoint (Q1) ≈$298M midpoint (Q3) Lowered at Q2, maintained in Q3
Estimated Net Loss ($USD)FY 2025$240–$248M (Q2) $240–$248M (Q3) Maintained
Non-cash SBC ($USD)FY 2025≈$36M (Q2) ≈$36M (Q3) Maintained
Non-cash Tax Expense ($USD)FY 2025$44.9M (Q2) $44.9M (Q3) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No conference call or Q&A was conducted for Q3 2025 . Themes are tracked from company disclosures (8-K and press releases).

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Prasinezumab (Parkinson’s)PADOVA Phase 2b data presented; Roche evaluating next steps; Phase 3 initiation by YE 2025 expected Roche to initiate Phase 3 PARAISO by YE 2025; peak sales potential >$3.5B cited Uptrend (advancing to Phase 3)
Coramitug (ATTR-CM)Phase 2 completed; results expected 2H 2025 Phase 2 data presented at AHA; published in Circulation; Phase 3 CLEOPATTRA initiated Uptrend (data + Phase 3 initiation)
BMS-986446 (PRX005, Alzheimer’s)Phase 2 ongoing; Phase 1 SC formulation in 2H 2025 FDA Fast Track designation; Phase 2 primary completion expected 1H 2027 Uptrend (regulatory acceleration)
PRX019 (Neurodegenerative)Phase 1 first-in-human underway; potential milestone in 2026 Phase 1 ongoing; potential milestone by end of 2026 Maintained (steady execution)
PRX012 (Alzheimer’s)Multiple Phase 1 ASCENT readouts starting mid-2025 Not emphasized in Q3 release; focus on partnered late-stage programs Neutral (less emphasized in Q3 comms)
Capital ReturnsEGM expected by YE 2025 to enable share redemption EGM Nov 19, 2025 to enable potential 2026 share redemption, subject to Board discretion and Irish High Court confirmation Uptrend (process progressing)
Cost DisciplineR&D/G&A trending down R&D/G&A down YoY; lower expenses cited Maintained (execution evident)

Management Commentary

  • “We are pleased with the advancement of our late-stage partnered clinical programs… Novo Nordisk… initiated the Phase 3 CLEOPATTRA… Roche plans to initiate the Phase 3 PARAISO… Bristol Myers Squibb obtained Fast Track designation… We look forward to Novo Nordisk presenting Phase 2 coramitug results… and sharing more about CYTOPE…” — Gene Kinney, Ph.D., President & CEO .
  • The company reiterated confidence in liquidity and maintained FY 2025 cash burn guidance and year-end cash expectations .
  • Strategic focus shifted in communications toward late-stage partnered programs and capital structure flexibility via prospective share redemption authorization .

Q&A Highlights

  • No analyst Q&A or conference call was held alongside Q3 2025 results, consistent with prior practice in certain quarters .

Estimates Context

  • EPS: PRTA reported $(0.68) vs S&P Global consensus $(0.69); inline to slight beat. Revenue: $2.42M vs consensus $6.64M; a significant miss, reflecting collaboration revenue timing and a minimal commercial base.*
  • With Phase 3 initiations and regulatory milestones, Street models may shift emphasis from near-term collaboration revenue to milestone probabilities and late-stage pipeline valuation. The absence of a call may delay immediate estimate revisions; however, Q3 guidance maintenance and clinical updates suggest limited near-term changes to cash burn assumptions .*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue volatility persists; near-term P&L remains driven by collaboration milestones rather than product revenue, evidenced by the Q3 revenue miss vs consensus .*
  • Cost discipline is materializing: R&D and G&A are trending down YoY/QoQ, supporting lower operating expense run-rate and preserving cash .
  • Clinical value inflection points: Coramitug Phase 3 initiation and supportive Phase 2 data, prasinezumab Phase 3 initiation plan, and BMS-986446 Fast Track enhance late-stage optionality and potential milestone visibility .
  • Capital return optionality: EGM on Nov 19 aims to enable a potential 2026 share redemption program, subject to Board discretion and court confirmation — a potential stock support catalyst if executed .
  • Liquidity adequate: $331.7M quarter-end cash and guidance to end FY with ≈$298M; no debt — runway aligns with continued clinical execution .
  • Trading implications (short-term): Expect stock sensitivity to clinical headlines (AHA publication, Phase 3 initiations), and to any Board action on capital returns .
  • Medium-term thesis: Pipeline progression into multiple Phase 3 programs (partnered) and an Alzheimer’s program with FDA Fast Track underpin optionality; valuation likely tied to probability-weighted pipeline outcomes and milestone cadence rather than near-term revenue .